Blog by Nora Doorley, EU Senior Political Consultant for Foreign Affairs, Defence and Development and Maria Morante, Dods EU Political Intelligence Intern.
Background
On Wednesday, 19 March, the European Commission, together with the High Representative, presented a ‘White Paper for European Defence – Readiness 2030’, a strategic blueprint outlining Europe’s pressing defence investment needs. The White Paper marks a decisive step in the strengthening of the European Union’s approach to defence, driven by the urgency of an increasingly unstable global landscape. Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine, crisis in the Middle East, an unsure NATO future, and broader geopolitical uncertainties have, in the minds of the EU leadership, collectively underscored the need for a stronger, more coordinated defence policy at EU level.
On 20 March 2025, following up on its conclusions of 6 March 2025, and in the light of the White Paper on the Future of European Defence published the day before, the European Council called for an acceleration of work on all strands to decisively ramp up Europe’s defence readiness within the next five years. The European Council is expected to deliberate on proposals and commitments at its upcoming meeting on 26-27 June 2025.
The publication of the White Paper comes at a time of renewed focus in defence more generally. Ushering in a ‘new era for European Defence and Security’ was one of the key priorities outlined by the Commission for the 2024-2029 period. Leveraging the momentum, the EU has, for the first time, created a dedicated role of ‘Commissioner for Defence and Space’, appointing Andrius Kubilius, the former Prime Minister of Lithuania and former Member of the European Parliament, to lead the charge. The Polish Presidency’s thematic focus on defence, captured in the slogan ‘Security, Europe!’, as well as the upgrading of the Subcommittee on Security and Defence (SEDE) to full Committee status further highlight how deeply security concerns are shaping the EU’s strategic direction on defence in an era of geopolitical precarity.
What’s in the White Paper?
Included in the 2025 Commission Work Programme, published on 11 February, was a pledge to present a White Paper on the future of European defence within the first 100 days of the new mandate, with High Representative Kaja Kallas and Commissioner Andrius Kubilius tasked with drafting it.
The White Paper stresses the need for an urgent increase in European defence-spending in order ‘to develop the necessary capabilities and military readiness to credibly deter armed aggression’, envisioning a ‘Single Market for defence’. More specifically, these critical capability areas refer to air and missile defence, artillery systems, ammunition and missiles, drones, counter-drone technology, military mobility, Artificial Intelligence (AI), quantum, cyber and electronic warfare, and critical infrastructure protection, including strategic airlift, air-to-air refuelling, maritime domain awareness, and space assets. Additionally, the White Paper calls for the creation of an ecosystem of ‘technological innovation for [Europe’s] defence industries to keep pace with changes in the character of war’. Specific actions outlined in the White Paper include:
- Closing capability gaps, with a focus on critical capabilities identified by Member States;
- Supporting the European defence industry through aggregated demand and increased collaborative procurement;
- Supporting Ukraine through increased military assistance and deeper integration of the European and Ukrainian defence industries;
- Deepening the EU-wide defence market including through simplifying regulations;
- Accelerating the transformation of defence through disruptive innovations such as AI and quantum technology;
- Enhancing European readiness for worst-case scenarios, by improving military mobility, stockpiling and strengthening external borders; and
- Strengthening partnerships with like-minded countries around the world.
Preceding the White Paper, on March 4, was the announcement by Commissioner President Ursula von der Leyen of the ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030, which lays the groundwork for more financial flexibility in the realm of defence expenditure with a view to ramping up defence-spending to the amount of 800 billion EUR.
The plan proposes three funding options to encourage Member States to invest more in defence:
- The activation of the national escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact which would authorise Member States to increase their defence spending up to a maximum of 1.5% of GDP during the next four years without breaching EU fiscal roles.
- The new Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument, through which the Commission will raise up to EUR 150 billion on capital markets to provide loans to Member States guaranteed by the EU budget.
- Broader support from the European Investment Bank (EIB) to defence and security projects and mobilisation of private savings into the capital market through the Saving and Investment Union (SIU) strategy.
Speaking during a European Parliament Plenary session on 12 March, Mr. Kubilius invoked the words of EU pioneer Jean Monnet, stating that people only make great decisions only when crisis is on their doorstep. In this context, it is possible to interpret the White Paper as a reflection of the EU’s crisis-driven approach to defence policy – where urgent geopolitical threats serve as a catalyst for greater coordination, investment and strategic ambition. It also sheds light on the EU’s thought processes behind the decision to ramp up defence capabilities in response to escalating security challenges, rather than through long-term strategic planning alone.
Reactions to the White Paper
Reactions to the White Paper reflect both broad support for greater EU defence coordination and sharp divergences on its scope and ambition. The European People’s Party takes a firm stance on security, emphasising the importance of immediate and long-term measures through the ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030 and a strengthening of the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). The Socialists & Democrats Group back stronger European defence cooperation but stress that social cohesion investments must not be sacrificed in favour of military spending, with S&D leader Iratxe García stating that “true security isn’t just about scaling up military capacities – it requires common debt, coordinated strategies and social welfare”. The Patriots for Europe (PfE) Group oppose the centralisation of defence, arguing that it should remain a national competence, while the European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) focus on the defence of critical sectors in the Union, including ‘strategic infrastructure, raw materials, communication systems, and technological innovations’. Renew Europe sees the White Paper as a step forward but criticises its lack of urgency, warning that Europe’s reliance on the United States for security can no longer be assumed, and that action is needed. Meanwhile, the Greens/EFA argue that the proposals lack sufficient ambition and fail to establish a clear path toward true European strategic autonomy. They do, however, acknowledge growing political consensus on the need for stronger defence capabilities.
From an industry perspective, VDMA broadly supports the White Paper, welcomes the focus on defence but calls for leveraging Europe’s industrial capacity to ensure cost efficiency. Similarly, the Community of European Railway and Infrastructure Companies (CER) highlights the importance of military mobility and integrating railway networks into defence logistics.
Overall, while there is consensus on strengthening EU defence, disagreements persist over funding priorities, strategic depth, and the speed of implementation.
Next Steps
The publication of the ‘White Paper for European Defence – Readiness 2030’ marks a significant milestone in the EU’s efforts to strengthen its security and defence capabilities. However, its success will depend on swift implementation, Member State commitment, and securing the necessary funding. In the coming months, discussions will intensify in the European Council and Parliament to refine and operationalise the proposed measures. The Commission will also work closely with industry and international partners to ensure that Europe’s defence ambitions translate into concrete action. The planned publication of the Defence Omnibus Simplification Regulation by June 2025 represents one such future measure. Additionally, by the end of the year, the European Commission is planning to present a European Armament Technological Roadmap on investment into dual-use advanced technological capabilities and a joint communication on Military Mobility, accompanied by the necessary legislative proposals.
In the meantime, the Commission has committed to starting a strategic dialogue with the defence industry, including the European Defence Agency or EU Military Staff as appropriate. It also calls on the co-legislators to adopt the proposed Draft Regulation on Security and Action for Europe (SAFE) as a matter of urgency as well as the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) before Summer. Finally, Member States are invited to ‘step up collaborative defence procurement in line with the target of at least 40% proposed by the European Defence Industry Strategy (EDIS)’.
Ultimately, as geopolitical tensions persist, the EU’s ability to turn this strategic vision into reality will be the true test of its commitment to a stronger, more autonomous European defence.
Image source: EC – Audiovisual Service