Blog by Nora Doorley, Team Leader and Senior Consultant covering foreign affairs, defence and development, and by Hanna Rosengren, Dods EU Political Intelligence Intern.
2024 Enlargement Package
On October 30, 2024, the European Commission adopted its annual Enlargement Package – a communication assessing the state of play of the countries aspiring to join the European Union. The report underscores the socio-economic, political, and security advantages of expanding the Union, emphasising the importance of unifying the continent around democratic principles and the rule of law.
Following the adoption of the Package, during a press conference attended by the High-Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security/Vice-President of the European Commission (HRVP), Josep Borrell, and the European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi, the High-Representative remarked that this Package constitutes the “fifth and final” Enlargement Package of the 2019-2024 Commission term.
Driven by geopolitical events, including Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, EU accession and enlargement have surged to the top of the EU’s priorities. In this context, “EU membership has become a strategic choice,” remarked the High-Representative.
In 2019, there were just five candidate countries; this has since increased to nine candidate countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine) and one potential candidate country (Türkiye).
The path to EU membership remains strictly merit-based, relying on each country’s commitment to meeting certain conditions, including judicial, administrative, and economic reforms. Reflecting on the year that has passed, Commissioner Várhelyi noted that a great deal of progress has been made, singling out the following developments as significant milestones:
- November 2023: Commission proposal introduced to renew EU-Türkiye relations, with some positive developments on both sides.
- December 2023: EU Council endorses the start of accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova and grants candidate status to Georgia.
- January 2024: Kosovar citizens gain visa-free travel within the EU.
- March 2024: EU leaders approve opening accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- June 2024: First intergovernmental conferences held with Ukraine and Moldova, officially launching accession negotiations; intergovernmental conference with Montenegro opens final stage of negotiations, marking the beginning of chapter closures.
- October 2024: First cluster of intergovernmental conferences launched with Albania.
These milestones reflect the considerable progress achieved within a relatively short timeframe, remarked the Commissioner.
In terms of future reforms, the Commission notes that Serbia is expected to accelerate the implementation of EU-accession related reforms across the board, with a particular focus on rule of law, media, and civil society. For North Macedonia, the Commission singles out corruption and organised crime as areas that require improvement. In the case of Georgia, it is noted that the recent parliamentary election process underscored the urgent need for electoral reform if public trust is to be restored. Meanwhile, Türkiye’s accession discussions have somewhat stalled due to ongoing concerns about judicial independence and fundamental rights.
Speaking on the subject of enlargement, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that “the tense geopolitical context makes it more compelling than ever that we complete the reunification of our continent, under the same values of democracy and the rule of law. We have already taken great strides over the last years towards integrating new Member States. And enlargement will remain a top priority of the new Commission”.
In anticipation of the Enlargement Package, the S&D Group published a press release on Wednesday, in which they called Mr. Várhelyi’s legacy “disastrous”. This Package marks the last Enlargement Package of Commissioner Várhelyi’s term as Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Environment. He is currently the Hungarian Commissioner-designate for Health and Animal Welfare and is a member of Patriots for Europe (PfE).
In terms of next steps, the Council will devote time to a consideration of the Commission’s recommendations and take decisions on the steps ahead in the enlargement process.
Niinistö Report – Safer Together: Strengthening Europe’s Civilian and Military Preparedness and Readiness
On October 30, 2024, former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö presented his report titled Safer Together: Strengthening Europe’s Civilian and Military Preparedness and Readiness. This report represents the culmination of several months of work – a process which began in March 2024, when European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen commissioned Sauli Niinistö, former president of Finland, to draft a report on EU defence readiness and preparedness in cooperation with the High-Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security/Vice-President of the European Commission (HRVP), and Member States.
The Niinistö report underscores an urgent need for a comprehensive, EU-wide security approach amid rising geopolitical and civil threats, advocating stronger collaboration between Member States, EU institutions, civil society, and the private sector. In the report, Mr. Niinistö argues that security has for too long has been taken for granted within the EU, and it must now be recognised as the foundation for stability and prosperity, requiring resilient systems and cross-sector cooperation. The report stresses that although individual Member States are primarily responsible for their own security, the integrated nature of the EU means that any on security breach can affect the Union in its entirety.
On this point, the report calls for consistent risk assessments and for preparedness to be embedded across all areas of EU policy and regulations. It also suggests improved cross-sector coordination and regular practical exercises to clarify roles, streamline crises responses, and ensure that the EU can function under any circumstances. Additionally, the report emphasises citizen engagement, calling for educational campaigns and improved communication channels to enhance the public understanding of preparedness and security needs. It also calls for practical skills development and stronger collaboration among authorities, trade unions, and employers to attract young Europeans to security-related fields, helping to close a widening skills gap and build a resilient, well-prepared society.
Further recommendations include strengthening the EU’s intelligence cooperation, establishing an anti-sabotage network, and enhancing resilience against hybrid threats, especially from foreign actors seeking to exploit Europe’s openness. Mr. Niinistö also advocates closer EU-NATO cooperation, particularly given Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Lastly, the report suggests increasing EU financial resources for defence through the Multiannual Financial Framework by dedicating 20% to broad security measures, with flexibility in budget planning to allow for effective responses to emerging threats.
Mr. Niinistö is due to present the report during a European Parliament Plenary session on 14 November.
For a comprehensive look at the European Commissioner-designates for the 2024-2029 mandate and what’s next for the EU, explore our latest report: