A short Dods Political Intelligence guide to the French presidential election
By Vincent Tournebize & Oona Bienvenu
Macron in pole position
With less than a month to go before the first round of France’s presidential election, President Emmanuel Macron is in pole position to win a second five-year term, Dods Political Intelligence reports. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a solid recovery from the Covid crisis have helped him secure a commanding lead in opinion polls over a fragmented opposition. It may not be clear who Macron is more likely to face in the second-round run-off vote on April 24, but most experts agree he is on track to be the country’s first two-term president since Jacques Chirac. That has led to one of the more subdued contests of recent times, with some going so far as to speak of a “phoney campaign” in the lead up to first round on April 10, a reference to the period of inaction in the early part of the Second World War.
Macron waited until shortly before the early March deadline to announce his candidacy in a letter published in newspapers that said he wanted to cut taxes and that teachers should be better paid. “We have not achieved everything we set out to do. There are choices that, with the experience I have gained from you, I would probably make differently” he said in the letter that mentioned a variety of challenges his administration has faced, from terror attacks to Covid, and the invasion of Ukraine. “I am running to defend our values that the world’s disorders are threatening.”
Ukraine crisis shapes the French presidential race
When it comes to policy news, Dods monitoring specialists report that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February has strengthened Macron’s hand and shifted attention away from domestic issues, although high energy prices could still feed concerns about the economy and cost of living. Critics accused Macron of being naïve in his ultimately fruitless discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin—including in Moscow at a farcically long conference table— but the polls suggest it has helped improve his chances of re-election. Despite his previous criticisms of NATO, the conflict has provided the president with an opportunity to champion peace and national self-determination on the world stage and added weight to his calls for Europe to strengthen its economic and strategic sovereignty. The Ukraine crisis has also put several of his challengers on the wrong side of public sentiment, with far-right presidential challengers like Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour, and leftist candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon having to row back on past support for Putin or opposition to NATO.
Macron was widely expected to throw his hat in the ring, with the government’s EUR30 billion “France 2030” investment plan in October and other announcements leaving little doubt he had designs beyond a single term. That has given some voters the impression that the next few years are already mapped out, even if the president must triumph again in legislative elections in June to be sure of having the power to enact policies. France’s stronger-than-expected economic recovery from the Covid crisis may have also given voters less cause to seek a change in the Elysée Palace, though it remains to be seen whether Covid will affect turnout.
Macrons opposition
Macron is also benefitting from a fragmented opposition, our French political intelligence experts report that his late candidacy left challengers to shadow box and argue among themselves for much of the early stages of the campaign. He has established himself as a potent political force since his centre-right pro-Europe La Republique En Marche! party broke the long-running duopoly of the traditional right and left-wing political groupings in 2017. By contrast, opposition voters on the left and right of the political spectrum remain split among a range of competing candidates, none of which appears to be capable of mounting a significant challenge. Analysts say this ongoing realignment of French politics suggests this election is more of as a staging post for the next contest in 2027 for Macron’s challengers.
Among a crowded field of candidates, Mélenchon is the leading left-wing contender, but he has been unable to unite various leftist factions which polls suggest have the support of about one fifth of the electorate. His La France Insoumise party performed well in the last presidential elections in 2017, when he won 19.5 percent of the vote, but other groups are vying for leftist voters, including the Socialist Party (PS), Europe Ecology – The Greens (EELV), and the French Communist Party (PCF). The right is equally fractured. Polls suggest Marine Le Pen, the leader of the Rassemblement National (RN) party, has the best chance of making it to the second round against Macron again on her third run for the presidency. However, the runner-up in 2017 faces a stiff challenge from Eric Zemmour, a former journalist-turned-anti-immigration-politician who wants his new Reconquete party to be the standard-bearer for the far right. Valérie Pécresse, the candidate for Les Republicains (LR), has also positioned herself between Macron and the far-right challengers.
Download the latest Dods Political Intelligence report, listing election pledges of the five leading candidates on energy, health, transport, agribusiness, and the environment.